欧盟因亚美尼亚人侵略纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫而使外交政策头痛

The EU is facing challenges on several fronts.欧盟在几个方面都面临挑战。 Not only is the COVID-19 pandemic's second wave crashing down on Europe, and the continent's economy still struggling to recover from its first impact in spring, but the EU faces several foreign policy challenges at the same time.不仅COVID-XNUMX大流行的第二波浪潮席卷了欧洲，而且非洲大陆的经济仍然难以从春季的第一波冲击中恢复过来，而且欧盟同时面临着一些外交政策挑战。 Brexit, the situation in Belarus, the poisoning of Alexei Navalny, and the continuing immigration crisis – these are all keeping EU leaders busy.英国脱欧，白俄罗斯局势，阿列克谢·纳瓦尼（Alexei Navalny）的中毒以及持续的移民危机–这些都使欧盟领导人感到忙碌。 Now they have to deal with a new foreign policy headache on Europe's eastern borders that is entirely avoidable and unnecessary: the flare-up of hostilities over Nagorno-Karabakh.现在，他们不得不应对欧洲东部边界上完全可以避免和不必要的新外交政策头痛：纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫爆发敌对行动。

本周早些时候，欧盟高级代表何塞普•波雷尔（Josep Borrell）与欧洲议会议员一起参加了欧洲议会的辩论，敦促停火并立即结束流血冲突。

Nagorno-Karabakh is an enclave in the Caucasus that is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan.纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫是高加索地区的一块飞地，国际上公认是阿塞拜疆的一部分。 Yet Armenia has occupied this region and seven adjoining districts of Azerbaijan, since the two countries fought a war in the early 1990s during the break-up of the Soviet Union.然而，自XNUMX年代初两国在苏联解体以来进行战争以来，亚美尼亚占领了该地区和阿塞拜疆的七个毗邻地区。 Armenia has refused to hand back control of Azerbaijan's territory, despite four United Nations' resolutions calling for it to withdraw its forces.尽管有四项联合国决议要求亚美尼亚撤军，但亚美尼亚拒绝交出对阿塞拜疆领土的控制。

This uneasy situation has remained in place for the past three decades, with brief border flare-ups, such as in 2014 and 2016. However, nothing like what we are seeing today: the fighting in the past week has involved heavy artillery, drones and warplanes.在过去的三十年中，这种不稳定的局势一直存在，边境突然爆发，例如在27年和141年。但是，这与我们今天所看到的情况完全不同：过去一周的战斗涉及重炮，无人机和战机。 Already 220 civilians have been killed in Azerbaijan and 21 injured.阿塞拜疆已经有XNUMX名平民丧生，另有XNUMX人受伤。 Armenia has reported XNUMX soldiers and at least XNUMX civilians have died.亚美尼亚报告有XNUMX名士兵，至少XNUMX名平民死亡。

Armenia is accused of using the opportunity of a West distracted by COVID-19 to alter the situation on the ground and capture more Azerbaijani territory.亚美尼亚被指控利用被COVID-30分散注意力的西部的机会来改变当地局势并占领更多的阿塞拜疆领土。 As a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance of ex-Soviet states, Armenia is assured of Russian help if it faces external aggression within its borders.作为前苏联国家军事联盟集体安全条约组织（CSTO）的成员，亚美尼亚向俄罗斯保证，如果俄罗斯面临其边界内的外部侵略，它将获得帮助。 However, under international law no such intervention would be justified in Nagorno-Karabakh and its seven surrounding districts, which are internationally recognised Azerbaijani territories under Armenian occupation for XNUMX years.然而，根据国际法，在纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫及其周围的七个地区（在亚美尼亚占领下已为国际公认的阿塞拜疆领土长达XNUMX年）及其七个地区没有道理。 Nevertheless, this conflict has been advantageous for Armenia so far, which faced little downside despite its smaller size, economy, population, and military power in comparison to Azerbaijan.尽管如此，到目前为止，这场冲突对亚美尼亚还是有利的。尽管与阿塞拜疆相比，亚美尼亚的规模，经济，人口和军事实力较小，但几乎没有什么下降的趋势。

但是，这对欧洲来说是巨大的损失。 欧洲南部不仅发生了暴力冲突，而且还危及了通过阿塞拜疆并向欧洲供应天然气的主要管道。阿塞拜疆还是西方的坚强伙伴，有着强烈的世俗政体。

Azerbaijan has responded with restraint to Armenian aggression, attacking only targets inside Nagorno-Karabakh.阿塞拜疆对亚美尼亚的侵略有所克制，只攻击纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫内部的目标。 This is after all Azerbaijani territory.这毕竟是阿塞拜疆的领土。 Azerbaijan has been careful this past week to not attack Armenian targets within Armenia itself, which Armenia would almost certainly have used as a pretext to demand Russian military assistance as per the collective defence terms of the CSTO.阿塞拜疆上周一直谨慎，不要攻击亚美尼亚境内的亚美尼亚目标，按照CSTO的集体防御条款，亚美尼亚几乎可以肯定会以此为借口要求俄罗斯提供军事援助。

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Armenia has been trying to force this escalation, by attacking Azerbaijan's second city Ganja, which is of little military value to Armenia as it lies over 100 km from Nagorno-Karabakh.亚美尼亚一直试图通过攻击阿塞拜疆的第二个城市Ganja来迫使这种升级，该城市距离亚美尼亚仅XNUMX公里，对亚美尼亚的军事价值很小。 It has also attacked the towns of Beylagan, Barda and Terter and there are reports that militants from the Kurdistan Workers Party and the group's Syrian branch, the People's Protection Units (YPG), who received training in Iraq and Turkey have been transferred to Nagorno-Karabakh to train Armenia forces.它也袭击了贝拉拉根，巴尔达和特尔特等城镇，据报道，库尔德工人党和该组织的叙利亚分支机构人民保护部队（YPG）的激进分子已在伊拉克和土耳其接受了培训，现已转移至纳戈尔诺。卡拉巴赫训练亚美尼亚部队。

 但是阿塞拜疆总统伊拉姆·阿利耶夫（Ilham Aliyev）一直小心谨慎，以避免冲突升级。

“现在，轰炸阿塞拜疆的亚美尼亚的目标正在使俄罗斯和CSTO参与这场冲突。 他们也希望我们也击中亚美尼亚，然后他们将向CSTO申请保护，”阿利耶夫在土耳其电视频道TRT的一次采访中说。

Russia, the United States and France have called for a ceasefire, though Russian president Vladimir Putin is the only leader who has the regional clout to end the present conflict.俄罗斯，美国和法国呼吁停火，尽管俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京是唯一拥有结束当前冲突的区域影响力的领导人。 He can tell Armenia to back down if he wishes – Russia is, after all, Armenia's most important ally.如果愿意，他可以告诉亚美尼亚退缩–毕竟，俄罗斯是亚美尼亚最重要的盟友。 Russia also has good relations with Azerbaijan, which would make it a mediator acceptable to both sides.俄罗斯与阿塞拜疆也有良好的关系，这将使其成为双方都可以接受的调解人。

“在这件事上，俄罗斯表现得像一个非常负责任的大国。 Positive signals are coming from Russia and the issue of support for any side is not a subject for discussion,” he pointed out.俄罗斯发出了积极的信号，对任何一方的支持问题都不是讨论的话题。”

The EU needs to work with Russia to bring an immediate end to hostilities.欧盟需要与俄罗斯合作，立即结束敌对行动。 Armenia should stop attacking Azerbaijan's cities, and start negotiating its withdrawal from Nagorno-Karabakh.亚美尼亚应停止攻击阿塞拜疆的城市，并开始谈判从纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫撤军。 This simmering 'frozen conflict' will now have to be resolved, or else a wider regional war with Turkey, Iran and Russia cannot be ruled out.现在将必须解决这场不休的“冻结的冲突”，否则就不能排除与土耳其，伊朗和俄罗斯之间更广泛的区域战争。

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